THE TAIWAN PINEAPPLE WAR (Copy)
THE BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT
China banned imports of Taiwanese pineapples on 1 March 2021, the latest in a string of punitive trade measures China has used to “weaponize” its growing economic clout. However, the so-called “Pineapple War” has been more fruitful for Taipei than Beijing thus far. The pineapple ban has not harmed Taiwan economically in the short-run, and it has enabled Taipei to strengthen political ties with the regional allies it needs to offset Chinese predation.
CONTEXT
The Geopolitical Pineapple
Nanás, also known as “piña de Indes” or “pineapples,” were first cultivated by the Tupi-Guaraní people in South America—but by the 16th century, the tropical fruit had been introduced to European, African and Asian cultures via the imperial agency of Portugal and Spain. Pineapples have since become an international symbol emblematic of prestige, hospitality and even friendship. While the world-famous fruit has long been associated with global mercantilism and geo-economics, the pineapple has also emerged as a pan-Asian symbol of patriotism and pushback throughout the greater Indo-Pacific since the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) banned pineapple imports from Taiwan on March 1.The CCP ostensibly restricted Taiwanese pineapples due to bio-security concerns after allegedly finding “dangerous creatures” during inspections—but the move is widely viewed as a geopolitical intimidation tactic by Taiwan and many of its neighbors in the Indo-Pacific (and beyond). The CCP also made international headlines in late 2020 using exorbitant tariffs to target Australian wine-makers. The CCP justified the measure as a means of protecting “the local market” but the tariffs are widely seen as pugilistic—part of a pugnacious pattern affecting beef, coal, barley, seafood, sugar, timber and other Australian exports which are heavily dependent on the Chinese market. The South African wine industry has been an unexpected beneficiary of deteriorating Sino-Aussie relations, but the Australian wine industry—among others—has been getting crushed. China-Australia diplomacy broke down in 2020 after the Australian government in Canberra called for investigations regarding the (possible) Chinese origins global COVID-19 pandemic—however, the major trading partners were diplomatic “frenemies” well before 2020. China may in fact be targeting Taiwanese pineapple imports as a direct result of new regulations approved by Australia’s department of agriculture that would enable Australian companies to import “de-crowned” pineapples from Taiwan under certain conditions.Australia is one of the most vigilant countries in the world when it comes to agricultural biosafety, hence the CCP’s allegations Taiwan’s agricultural exports have “pests” such as “mealybugs,” despite Taipei’s vigorous refutation of those allegations.Piña-Collusion
It is unclear if the CCP feels emboldened by the economic pain it has inflicted on the Australian economy by leveraging punitive barriers to trade, but many of China’s trading partners and regional rivals have taken note—and taken steps—to insulate the Taiwan pineapple industry against what many perceive as Chinese bullying. The government in Taipei reported an uptick in orders from Australia, Japan, Singapore, Vietnam and several Middle Eastern countries as a direct result of Beijing’s ban. Japan has reportedly ordered a record number of Taiwanese pineapples. Taiwan is now Japan's second largest supplier of pineapples—up from fifth in 2018. Sources in Japan report being “confused” by China’s ban on Taiwanese pineapples and have reported on the uptick in Japanese purchases as a “gesture of thanks” to Taiwan for its generosity in the wake of the devastating earthquake and tsunami that decimated the northeast coast of Japan on 11 March 2011.Freedom Fruit
Taiwan's Council of Agriculture (COA) has reacted to the Chinese ban by pledging NT$1 billion (US$35.33 million) to promote pineapple sales domestically as well as abroad. Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen also intiated a social media campaign that roughly translates to “eat Taiwan’s pineapples until you burst” and called on the Taiwanese people to support the island’s farmers by eating “freedom pineapples.” “The other day I went to the supermarket and found that all the pineapples were sold out, and I felt very touched. Everyone has this feeling of solidarity.” A. T., Taiwan
The campaign has reportedly sparked a “pineapple patriot” movement among the citizenry—and politicians from both the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the opposition Nationalist Party (NP) have been visiting farms to post pictures with pineapples. Support for Taiwanese pineapple farmers is not universal, however, in places like Australia. One Australian politician who counts Australian pineapple farmers among his constituents released a statement framing the sector as “another agricultural industry that is about to be sacrificed on the altar of free markets.” RUNNING NUMBERS
$0
The value of exports of wine to China dropped to almost zero in December, according to statistics from industry group Wine Australia. The total value of wine exported to China for all of 2020 dropped by 14% to about 1 billion Australian dollars ($790 million). 25 million people
Australia’s population (25 million) is about the same as Taiwan (23.5 million) despite being a significantly larger island.95%
Taiwan only exports about 10% (45,621 tons) of its total pineapple yield (415,901 tons), but mainland China has accounted for 95% of Taiwanese exports historically.18 kilograms
The Chinese media reportedly mocked Taiwan's 'Freedom Pineapple' campaign, following Beijing’s ban on Taiwanese pineapple imports. Netizens were particularly amused by one Taiwanese official’s statement that if every person in Taiwan ate 18kg of pineapple per day (roughly 6 pineapples) they could make the discrepancy in two weeks.2,144 tons
Taiwan was the second biggest exporter of pineapples to Japan in 2020 (2,144 tons), up from the fifth biggest in 2018 (682 tons).10,000 tons
After China's ban that went into effect March 1, agriculture minister Chen Chi-chung said Japan preordered over 10,000 tons of Taiwan-grown pineapples, almost five times 2020 imports—which was a record high.20%
If Taiwan can secure 20 percent of Japan's pineapple market it would nearly compensate for any lost business from China. Japan imports about 15 percent of the pineapples it consumes, or about 157,000 tons, with the Philippines taking up the lion's share at about 152,000 tons.10 years
Well-known Japanese composer Sawaguchi Kazuhiko and his music group “Lunch Duty” (給食当番) wrote a song titled the "Taiwan Pineapple Song" (台湾パイナップルのうた) reportedly because Taiwan was one of the first countries to help Japan after the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami 10 years ago, and he and the other band members decided to help out.Since being uploaded on March 8, the video has gained over 52,000 views, 2,400 likes, and 200 comments. In the comments section below, many Taiwanese expressed their thanks, wrote that they were touched by the song, and welcomed the band members to visit the country. (WATCH IT HERE…)STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS
Taiwan has been self-ruled ever since Chiang Kai-shek’s Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) retreated to the island after being defeated on the mainland by Mao Zedong’s communist guerillas. The island has maintained de-facto political independence since 1949, though the CCP considers it part of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The CCP seeks to reunify Taiwan with mainland China under communist rule via any (or all) means necessary—including military force.The CCP’s existential obsession with controlling Taiwan is not just a matter of political pride or economic prize—though it is both of those things—it is situated in a critical geostrategic territory the CCP must dominate to ensure national security—and ultimately to project power in pursuit of the CCP’s broader geopolitical ambitions.Taiwan’s physical location and military relationship with the United States, Japan and others prevents China from assuming decisive control over the South China Sea (SCS) which is home to the global economy’s most critical shipping lanes. The CCP could (and most certainly would) moderate global supply chains—at the expense of geopolitical rivals—as the CCP saw fit if they ever seized control of Taiwan. Conversely, the CCP cannot guarantee its own access to critical resources—including basic materials, food stuffs and energy—without dominating Taiwan. The CCP has been increasingly belligerent vis-a-via the Taiwan issue after putting down pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong in 2020—though Taiwan is just one of numerous hostile territorial disputes involving the CCP. Re-Imagine Dragons
The great “Pineapple War” of 2021 has included a high-profile public response from Taiwan and its neighbors, but it appears to be part of a broader CCP campaign targeting Taiwan’s agriculture sector. Beijing recently banned imports of meat from Taiwan (ostensibly) to prevent the spread of bird flu and consumption of an animal feed additive (ractopamine) as well.On 17 March, the CCP’s Taiwan Affairs Office announced over 20 incentives intended to attract Taiwanese agriculture and forestry businesses to the mainland according to Xinhua, China’s state news agency. The fact that the “sweeteners” (including providing Taiwanese-funded businesses access to agricultural and forest land, plus financing, research and development) came less than three weeks after banning Taiwanese pineapples (and took immediate effect) may be a sign that the CCP knows it overplayed its hand with the latest round of restrictions—or not—but the overarching strategy appears to be “make it more attractive for Taiwanese businesses to invest on the mainland than on the island.”Beijing’s pineapple ban will not have a major impact on Taiwanese farmers in the near term as . Taiwanese officials told local media that purchases by domestic businesses and citizens exceeded the amount that would have been sold to China just one day after the ban was enactedAt some point Beijing’s inability to re-imagine an approach which has become predictable and galvanizing for Taipei may jeopardize the mainland’s access to advanced technology from Taiwan, especially semi-conductors, which are essential to China’s economy and goals. Even if the CCP is actually banning Taiwanese products for legitimate health and safety reasons, no one in the region believes them. Whereas CCP propaganda often pays lip service to “non-interference,” “mutual-benefit” and “friendship” it’s tactics belie disingenuous, coercive and otherwise unseemly underlying tendencies when it comes to international trade and diplomacy.Taiwan has not only benefitted from China’s pattern of behavior, it has also cultivated more meaningful relationships with its neighbors than the CCP has been able to achieve. The pineapple ban is ultimately an opportunity for Taiwan to open up new markets for Taiwanese farmers that reduce reliance on CCP controlled markets—and the Japanese market appears to be particularly ripe with potential.Moreover, the CCP may have also inadvertently forced politicians from the opposition party in Taipei to take a harder line against Beijing than they were otherwise inclined—in light of the unifying uptick in anti-CCP sentiment. That may or may not be an unforced error in the short-run, but if “pineapple patriotism” portends a sustained shift in sentiment that fosters a more intense nationalist fervor over time and assertive calls for explicit (instead of de facto) independence—the CCP will feel compelled to be even more aggressive, even if it is the CCP’s own mis-steps exacerbating the situation.China has a long history of leveraging trade policy to exploit and punish its trading partners—not to mention its competitors—and the gains from this approach have been legendary. China’s rapid economic ascent has reinforced a very specific topography of behavior its most important trading partners find distasteful. As one source noted, the CCP has helped Japan discover “how delicious Taiwan-grown pineapples are.” Perhaps because they taste like freedom.
